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Asia Continues Powering Global Oil Demand Growth
Wed, Sep 22, 2004 15:47 GMT

SINGAPORE - Asia, and particularly China, will remain as key drivers of global oil demand growth until at least the end of next year, according to a senior International Energy Agency official.

International oil demand growth is forecast at 2.5 million barrels a day this year, before slowing to 1.8 million b/d for 2005, said Antoine Halff, principal administrator of IEA's Oil Industry and Markets Division.

Asian oil demand grew exceptionally strongly this year, partly due to hefty economic growth in some countries. Another element was disruptions in Japan's nuclear power sector, which increased Japan's fuel oil and crude consumption, he said.

Halff was speaking to Dow Jones Newswires Tuesday on the sidelines of the 20th Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore.

In 2005, Asia will continue to be the main force behind international oil demand growth, powered mainly by China. Growth in non-OECD countries will offset stagnating demand in OECD nations, Halff said.

Chinese demand of close to 6.6 million b/d in July 2004 has pushed far beyond the 5.4 million b/d seen a year earlier.

But the future pace of growth is difficult to forecast due to uncertainties about the impact of China's efforts to slow economic growth, and because of domestic infrastructure constraints.

Halff noted that Indian demand was 2.5 million b/d in June 2004, from some 2.35 million b/d in the same month last year. Growth had been bolstered by stronger diesel demand from the agriculture sector because of this year's relatively mild monsoon season.

Halff said he expected the likely completion of India's cross-country highway network in the next two years to give a big boost to oil demand from the transportation sector.

The expected slowing in global oil demand growth in 2005 will be due in part to record-high oil prices this year - usually there is a lag before high prices hit oil consumption.

According to the IEA, overall global oil demand last year was close to 80 million b/d.